The Constantinople Hard Fork of the Ethereum network is scheduled to take place on Thursday at the 7,280,000th block. Currently, the Ethereum network block size stands at 7,272,826. The upgrade of the Ethereum network can lead to a spike in the Ether price volatility right before the fork.
Ethereum network has a history of heavy volatility right before a software upgrade, take the Byzantium hard fork release on Oct. 16, 2017, which made the market so volatile that investors had to sell their Ether holdings which resulted in the prices to slide by a massive 20%. Hard-forks often create an aura of uncertainty among the investor community which prevents them from making any kind of investment on the day of the scheduled fork.
Investors often prefer to wait and watch, as the new update might not necessarily pan out the way creators would have wanted. In case of Constantinople Hard Fork, the situation becomes even more intense since the fork has been postponed in January due to an error which was discovered in the testing phase.
The 2017 fork lead volatility took a toll on the prices of Ether so intensely that it took 34 days for Ether to break above the sideways channel after the fork. If the same conditions prevail before the next scheduled Constantinople Hard Fork, ether prices might go on a downward spree again.
Current Market Trends
The overall market trend also plays a crucial role in determining or predicting upcoming trends. ETH/USD prices were at a three-month high on last Sunday morning, however, the afternoon saw a considerable amount of sell-off, dropping the ETH prices by 17%.
The current crypto trade market is trying hard to gain some momentum after a 6-month bear run. If the current trends prevail, ETH might see its prices touching the lower support price of $123 before the Constantinople Hard Fork commences.
Ether is currently trading at $139 and unless there is a massive sell-off before the hard-fork, the prices are predicted to touch a low of $130. The delay of the fork can also be a driving sentiment among the investors, which can see them selling off, but trade pundits believe the current trends wouldn’t lead to a drastic fall.
If we consider that the scheduled fork would follow the same course as it did in the October 2017 one, the prices would not slide further than 20%.